The Persistence of Errors

Errors permeate the story of humanity. 

From Fleming’s discovery of penicillin, to the many miscarriages of justice that destroy peoples’ lives. 

*1

And thus a thoughtful understanding of the nature of errors is something that everyone should undertake. 

For whilst we might think that errors occur randomly on every timeline, when we examine them then we would realise that their occurrence  rather than occasioning us to reign in actually makes it more likely than not to cause yet more errors. 

These are of two types 

1- Compounding errors, which occur when we do not hold ourselves to a higher account, as in when we allow our allegiance to a “family” to determine our outlook and our choice of ignorance, over scrutiny. 

2- Concomitant errors. These occur when our attention to all other factors waivers in the anxious search for the cause of the first. 

The first type of error is the more pernicious, causing the greater harm because we are unwilling to cast aspersions against those on whose loyalty we likewise rely, just as they rely on us. 

The worst of these occur behind a black impenetrable box of obfuscation and obscuration that is our Criminal Justice System, where no one except the most foolhardy can call our Police to question. 

For it is clear to many of our public that they rather than keeping the Law are above it, and furthermore are above common human decency, and the moral behaviour of what we should expect from our model citizens. 

The second type of concomitant errors occur when our mind’s eye is distracted in the anxious search to avoid the first, and we fall prey to yet another. 

Worryingly when we “find” the source of the first error, even when it is not the real cause, this second type of error diminishes giving us the wrongful impression that our presumption was correct. 

In normal life the impact of concomitant errors may be small. But in policing the impact of this confirmation bias can be devastating. 

When both types come together we have what happens most of the time within our Criminal Justice System:

A Police Force that reigns in its investigation in order to secure a conviction. Solicitors and Judges that do not demand any proofs but rely on sentiment as judge, jury and executioner. 

And then a Police Force that rewards itself for securing a conviction no matter how convenient, or flawed. 

And a society that continues to think that the mantra “hard on crime” rings true, whilst pumping more money into a failed concept of Policing does nothing except increase crime, whilst securing yet more unsafe convictions. 

Like occurrences do also happen within our Medical Fraternity, but at the very least there each Clinician is at pains to take their each own patient histories, and draw each their own salient points from that. 

But once a treatment regime begins then these types of errors do still occur the more, and confirmation bias rules. 

These errors compound within our institutions, and are natural within them unless they each make conscious efforts to avoid them. And every institution is made up of people, just like you and me. 

The problem is the more insidious when human prejudice is added into the mixture, for then once the “culprit” is found confirmation bias proves their “guilt” irrespective of evidence, sometimes missing but more often then not just simply ignored.  

The first type can be solved by us each holding ourselves to a higher account, and not allowing ourselves to be cowed by the flavour of the day or other peoples sentiments. 

The second when we recognise that errors will occur, and then take them in our stride and do not cast around for blame. “Yes it has happened, but let that not stop us part stride”. 

*1 How can a person be convicted of the heinous crime of murder based upon purely circumstantial evidence. To me this irks full of errors that the CJS plainly encourages.